Conviction

Harthis approaches me with a cheerful expression.

"I have received your report. It seems you had quite the success today as well. Well done."

He tilts his head, perhaps misunderstanding my focus on the paper in my hand and the furrowed brows on my face.

"A paper? A long time ago, mass production was established, and they are gradually being replaced. The request forms use parchment for spells, and there may still be cases where parchment is used on-site."

His reply seems off-target.

"No, I wanted to ask about the Goblins."

He speaks with a slight concerned smile. If he's doing this intentionally, he's quite cunning. Ah, a scout? There are people who use such conversation tactics.

"Indeed... Is that so?"

He continues with a somewhat somber expression.

"To cut it short, there is a high possibility of the emergence of a commander."

He hands over some documents. Reading through them, they detail the recent trends in Goblin exterminations. The numbers have been gradually increasing for about ten days and have sharply risen in the past two or three days. There's also a summary of extermination counts over the past three years, which fluctuate annually but are unusually high during winter months. The last document lists resolved cases over the past thirty years, mostly clustered around the same month, though two occurred much earlier, about a month later.

"Generally, it seems to happen around the end of the year. Every year, Goblins organize and attack this village in some numbers."

From what I gather, they raid for plunder and women, attacking in somewhat organized groups each year. The one compiling this information believes it's due to a commander. It's noted that not all Goblins follow, but they merge into larger groups to form an organization.

I wonder why women specifically, then recall Varda's words. Their genetics are the same... Can they reproduce?

Incidentally, this village has quite a long history. Its strategic location as a transportation hub and access to the forest have contributed to its development. Yet it's strange that there are no surrounding fences, considering they should be prepared for an annual event.

"How do you handle this every year? There don't seem to be any fences."

"The state's policy is to send the viscount's knight corps around the time before the incidents occur. They number about 100."

A hundred people. Not all of them are combatants.

"As for the fences, since the knight corps are dispatched, there's no budget for them. Even if there were fences, the knight corps would still be sent."

Budgets, budgets, budgets. This word inevitably follows one into society and is crucial. Essentially, it's money set aside in anticipation of future events. Generally divided into three categories: revenue, cost of goods sold, and expenses.

- Revenue budget: The estimated amount earned, the anticipated income.
- Cost of goods sold budget: The estimated costs for purchasing or producing items to sell.
- Expense budget: Estimated costs for salaries, transportation, etc., outside of the cost of goods sold.

Organizations predict future income and expenditures and set aside funds accordingly. However, this system is weak when unexpected events occur, as it only prepares for predicted amounts. Most organizations have contingency funds, but they can still fall short, leading to borrowing—commonly known as supplementary budgets.

In summary, a smaller supplementary budget indicates capable management. While natural disasters are unpredictable, other discrepancies stem from forecasting errors. Despite human fallibility, effective judgment based on gathered information is key.

The reason for the lack of budget here is simple: If Goblins come, whether or not there's a fence, the knight corps will be dispatched to deal with them. So fences aren't necessary.

"What about if they appear earlier than expected?"

"There's contingency funds at the Adventurers' Guild. These are used to initially defend with adventurers while forming and dispatching the knight corps."

"How many attack each year? Can adventurers handle it?"

"It varies annually, but around 300 to 400. While casualties have occurred, it's manageable."

Harthis looks troubled.

This is a misstep by the state. Strictly speaking, approved by the king. If they undervalue adventurers' lives, that's another matter.

The top of the state's role is to predict the future—decades ahead—and set policies. Ideally, this should be their sole focus. They must gather and analyze data relentlessly to foresee a prosperous future. While entanglements exist, the essence remains.

Interestingly, the state leader's predictions are likely accurate. That's why they're in their position. Bureaucratic analyses add depth, making their conclusions robust.

What the state leader says is treated as fact unless it's deceitful. Among leaders, future events are recognized as facts, shaping policies. Even inconvenient truths for citizens are political realities.

"When do you expect the commander and group to arrive?"

"From past data, not tomorrow or the day after. But soon."

Both voices grow softer.

"How many adventurers will be drafted when it happens?"

"Those ranked 8th grade and above will be summoned. There's no margin for including 9th grade."

"What about before the incident occurs?"

"The reward for Goblin exterminations will be doubled. From here, more confidential information follows. I'll share based on your trust. This is due to an unexpected increase in Goblins."

"A gag order?"

"The Adventurers' Guild lacks that authority. It's a state power. At least the viscount has been informed promptly. Staff hasn't noticed yet."

I realize I've fallen into a trap.

This is bad. I should have noticed. Now there's no escape.

"At this stage, only you are aware. Those appraisers in the staff might start sensing something off. Please cooperate."

Curiosity killed the cat.

"What if I flee?"

"Regrettably, once the gag order is issued, your knowledge will be reported to all Guilds."

I can't afford to make the Guild an enemy. There's no escape. Sigh, I was careful not to leave any incriminating statements at work. Pretending ignorance... wasn't possible. My lack of knowledge about this situation is glaring.

"By the way, are these documents available in the upper archives?"

"No. The state has restricted access. They're kept in the Guild's archive."

So the state wants to hide this information. At least from current villagers, they prioritize the village's existence. Simply put, in the worst case, if all villagers are wiped out, they can gather more.

"How much aid do we have?"

"Until this incident is resolved, necessary equipment will be loaned interest-free. Certificates will be issued each time."

The Guild is serious. Riza and Fia come to mind.

"There are two others in my party who don't know about this yet. Do I need to keep this a secret from them?"

"It's difficult to acknowledge confidentiality within the party, but I trust you. It's fine regarding this matter."

"Persuade them to leave without telling them?"

"Yes."

I'm seriously stressed. Those two, without knowing, flee? How do I persuade them?